Mls · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf017b7b7a919f3afc99326b0e6be46a2ac723d75e3e426e3b597900bef126614
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Cincinnatiof Chicago Fire FC, FC Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Chicago Fire FC | 19c | 856.4$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Fire FC | 20c | 509$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Chicago Fire FC | 5c | 383.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Chicago Fire FC | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…bf96backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 247$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…4471backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 244.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0937…99dfbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 244.31$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…0d38backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 242.17$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…f09fbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 241.93$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…5195backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 241.9$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…27afbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 240.85$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…821dbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 236.3$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…d315backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 233.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f28…1ea4backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 232.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a71…01d3backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 229.16$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…467dbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 228.72$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…efadbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 228.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914f…e477backed FC Cincinnati | 49c | 227.81$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe42…8e5cbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 223.45$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6d…0047backed Chicago Fire FC | 16c | 122.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked FC Cincinnati | 42c | 64.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Cincinnati | 74c | 60.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Chicago Fire FC | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed FC Cincinnati | 74c | 37.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.