Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc354b88af34dbe09637606354d596dd71c864ccb4e661b6db3251cd834c1a82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 1,357$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.41 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.05 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…b9bebacked Over | 55c | 474.63$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 80c | 454.83$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.82 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 70c | 271$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.82 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 5c | 254.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.99 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 40c | 174.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 34c | 149$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 22c | 116.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 31c | 105.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 20c | 93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 76c | 85.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 79.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 42c | 79.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 18c | 75.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Under | 80c | 58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 79c | 57.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 19c | 54.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 24c | 50.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 39.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…c9ecbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 59c | 24.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 56c | 20.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Over | 73c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.