CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc812d083da6904f4af9d29ba1bea5517f5726f6f61381c227eaffd21da90e0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HEROIC Academyof Ursa, HEROIC Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed Ursa | 44c | 570.71$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.11 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…bef4backed HEROIC Academy | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…b7a7backed HEROIC Academy | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked HEROIC Academy | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Ursa | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Ursa | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 445 | 52.4%233 W · 212 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed HEROIC Academy | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…e685backed HEROIC Academy | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Ursa | 45c | 54.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…e653backed HEROIC Academy | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Ursa | 46c | 24.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked HEROIC Academy | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…286dbacked HEROIC Academy | 54c | 19.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group StageUrsa won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 WinnerHEROIC Academy won
- Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 WinnerUrsa won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5)HEROIC Academy won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5)HEROIC Academy won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Ursa (-3.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+3.5)Ursa won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.