MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc81727df65d1255b0c8db1d94cc73f36459ca4fccc27dc767c0213325d2d5d7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 28,537$18,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,038.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 22,975$8,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,993.6 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 34c | 7,269$2,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,786.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Under | 43c | 3,466$1,503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 44c | 1,660$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.63 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 59c | 1,525$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 62c | 1,485$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 62c | 600$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 38c | 511$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.77 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 44c | 380$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 182.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 25c | 172.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 30c | 131$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 44c | 111.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 93.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.97 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 68c | 78.7$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Over | 37c | 69.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba08…21f1backed Under | 54c | 54.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Over | 34c | 46.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 44.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Over | 42c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…3be4backed Under | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-5.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.