MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d58d9c6aa71622de556c690a8effe64464e7d51f2ddfb6e36f8a561a005d8db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 68c | 39,888$26,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,996 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 30c | 31,346$9,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,826.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 55c | 10,648$5,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,778.48 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 28c | 6,966$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,011.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 5,916$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,833.18 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 3,332$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.3 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 1,445$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Athletics | 36c | 858.97$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.74 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 762.45$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.97 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Athletics | 55c | 681.49$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.67 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Athletics | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Athletics | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe4…4841backed Los Angeles Angels | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Athletics | 27c | 290.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.61 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 258.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Athletics | 59c | 213.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.91 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Los Angeles Angels | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 31.6%72 W · 156 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Athletics | 36c | 194.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.44 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Athletics | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Athletics | 28c | 103$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Los Angeles Angels | 42c | 86.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 51c | 81.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 78.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Athletics | 29c | 71.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Athletics | 28c | 43.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 49c | 40.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Athletics | 60c | 38.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 38c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Athletics | 57c | 34.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 30.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfe…bfb7backed Los Angeles Angels | 46c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 22.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…9712backed Athletics | 66c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20aa…e26bbacked Athletics | 55c | 19.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 64c | 18.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 13.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 14.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-5.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.