Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8372ca6ad0828d416f6d7edd19cdf41a2ad29723a8fe2b4f1d84578cfcfadd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,975
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 37c | 541.4$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.62 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 53c | 493.05$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…3233backed No | 2c | 457.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 64c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4674…03cabacked Yes | 68c | 176.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 68c | 176.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 15c | 165.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 155.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 72c | 152.01$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 151.69$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 44c | 130.88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 121.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 109.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 104.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 55c | 98.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 57c | 88.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 17c | 84.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 70c | 76.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 57c | 74.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed No | 43c | 72.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 70.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…2af3backed Yes | 67c | 58.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 68c | 55.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 53c | 53.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 20c | 49.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 62c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed Yes | 70c | 35.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 70c | 34.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 42c | 32.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…7322backed No | 53c | 30.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 29.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 70c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 44c | 23.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…a961backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 69c | 19.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 16.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 15.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa514…7b70backed No | 71c | 14.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 14.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or higher on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.