Ukraine · resolved market
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc83fa4a9f366672164f699d4ee488e64c60ef2a294e294cb7db07d00156c4de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $214,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x043a…1929backed Yes | 1c | 9,529$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…6662backed Yes | 5c | 9,314$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…e1aebacked Yes | 2c | 8,388$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,302$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,787$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,736$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…4faabacked Yes | 3c | 3,916$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 2c | 3,851$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x387a…ff69backed Yes | 7c | 3,843$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 5cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,777$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…1bc3backed Yes | 2c | 3,684$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x393c…7a6dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,558$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 3,197$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 65 | 1.5%1 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c0…a91fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4525…0f9dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,961$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 1,787$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…14f0backed Yes | 34c | 1,525$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,406$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 66c | 1,392$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 3c | 1,239$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,009$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c3…0020backed Yes | 1c | 1,003$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 4c | 930$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…f4bcbacked Yes | 2c | 805.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 8c | 796.32$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…74b6backed Yes | 1c | 769.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14c…4e18backed Yes | 2c | 691.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…8e1cbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc009…9561backed Yes | 2c | 599.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…d744backed Yes | 4c | 577.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…aebabacked Yes | 5c | 548.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 4c | 531.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ba…8872backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 76c | 497.41$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef42…c078backed Yes | 6c | 447.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1074…b4dbbacked Yes | 4c | 275.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 260.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…0333backed Yes | 6c | 183.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.