Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc860c58506ebdb7861fa4ea85315651a1ddd1d9035c37e332281d68f1dafb7ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,313
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,313 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 452.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 65c | 415.1$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 71c | 359.92$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 332.16$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 34c | 313.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 201.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 111.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 104.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 20c | 101.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 77.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 70.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 14c | 69.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 63.79$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 61.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 61.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…704ebacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 43c | 49.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 49c | 47.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 25c | 41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 76c | 37.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 28.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a0…d048backed Yes | 45c | 25.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 24.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…1349backed Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b59…1310backed Yes | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb0…3aa0backed Yes | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6f…699abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.