UFC · resolved market
UFC: Haig vs. Oleksiejczuk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc881ebd8a3ce9521be07df64df7581bc8e51563319ce69bf1c4e6dacf36c1a9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oleksiejczukof Haig, Oleksiejczuk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,351
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,351 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Oleksiejczuk | 75c | 1,894$1,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.2 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Haig | 24c | 1,029$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.88 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Oleksiejczuk | 76c | 490$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked Haig | 26c | 485$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Haig | 24c | 365.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.62 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Haig | 28c | 360.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Haig | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Oleksiejczuk | 72c | 331.03$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Oleksiejczuk | 76c | 275$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…40cdbacked Haig | 28c | 255.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…23d9backed Haig | 28c | 180.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Oleksiejczuk | 75c | 160$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Haig | 27c | 156.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Haig | 27c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Oleksiejczuk | 73c | 86.45$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Haig | 27c | 76.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked Oleksiejczuk | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f94…35d2backed Oleksiejczuk | 76c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC: Haig vs. Oleksiejczukthis page
- UFC: Congdon vs. LebosnoyaniLebosnoyani won
- UFC: Henrique vs. HoHenrique won
- UFC: McMillen vs. MgoyanMcMillen won
- UFC: Nallo vs. Silva Nallo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.