UFC · resolved market
UFC: Nallo vs. Silva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81517d08a4e0d045b832b5b7649fa2e36e61312bfbd5148d9dadb0997eece04c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nallo of Nallo , Silva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Silva | 54c | 1,329$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.44 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Nallo | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Silva | 57c | 868.47$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.03 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Nallo | 64c | 643.8$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.78 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nallo | 42c | 558.74$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.75 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Silva | 55c | 454.22$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked Nallo | 47c | 392$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Nallo | 47c | 360.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.02 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Silva | 60c | 321.08$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Nallo | 39c | 247.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Nallo | 46c | 230$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Nallo | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Silva | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Silva | 62c | 182$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.84 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Silva | 54c | 159.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Nallo | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Nallo | 46c | 88.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…23d9backed Silva | 57c | 88.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Silva | 58c | 87.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Silva | 53c | 71.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Silva | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Nallo | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked Silva | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Nallo | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Nallo | 46c | 27.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC: Nallo vs. Silva this page
- UFC: Congdon vs. LebosnoyaniLebosnoyani won
- UFC: Haig vs. OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
- UFC: Henrique vs. HoHenrique won
- UFC: McMillen vs. MgoyanMcMillen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.