UFC · resolved market
UFC: McMillen vs. Mgoyan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8645fc98f2cb7ef08f730266007284224eceb6f69e8ff447b25d6c7f01198064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McMillenof McMillen, Mgoyan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Mgoyan | 62c | 1,800$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.5 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed McMillen | 37c | 1,332$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.75 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed McMillen | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6d…fb82backed McMillen | 38c | 971.99$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked McMillen | 37c | 600$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.49 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Mgoyan | 61c | 593.44$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mgoyan | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked McMillen | 40c | 350$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked McMillen | 40c | 287.8$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed McMillen | 41c | 213.93$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.93 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfc…edb9backed Mgoyan | 61c | 204.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Mgoyan | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Mgoyan | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mgoyan | 59c | 189.09$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.49 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked Mgoyan | 64c | 157$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b6…0d6dbacked Mgoyan | 65c | 155$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked McMillen | 41c | 125.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.3 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Mgoyan | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Mgoyan | 57c | 85.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…23d9backed Mgoyan | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Mgoyan | 62c | 74.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked McMillen | 43c | 69.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked McMillen | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked McMillen | 38c | 58.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Mgoyan | 65c | 57.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed McMillen | 35c | 57.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked McMillen | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Mgoyan | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Mgoyan | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC: McMillen vs. Mgoyanthis page
- UFC: Congdon vs. LebosnoyaniLebosnoyani won
- UFC: Haig vs. OleksiejczukOleksiejczuk won
- UFC: Henrique vs. HoHenrique won
- UFC: Nallo vs. Silva Nallo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.