Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc898f94014e95495d2c8de0e7f03b9ef091e63276c40e9919a83d55ebc08f10e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 314.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 37c | 207.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 13c | 196.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 36c | 196.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.75 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 29c | 194.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 163.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 146.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 143.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 133.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd62c…4efcbacked No | 70c | 130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 39c | 129.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 64c | 121.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 29c | 104.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…813bbacked Yes | 52c | 99.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 87.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 82.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 50c | 79.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 78c | 77.44$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked No | 70c | 71.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 67.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 64.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 25c | 59.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 67c | 59.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 41c | 58.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 42c | 54.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 29c | 52.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…06e2backed Yes | 39c | 51.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 57c | 44.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 75c | 44.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 44.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24d…0dc2backed No | 67c | 40.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 38.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 32c | 35.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 76c | 26.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 69c | 25.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 69c | 24.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 61c | 20.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 15.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.