Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Marin Cilic vs Casper Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8a5ab3d19d57aba91beb5ed50f981abe768afc364df60b7bbe82dd84d209160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ruudof Cilic, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cilic | 0c | 13,028$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…3a5bbacked Ruud | 62c | 4,353$2,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Cilic | 39c | 3,157$1,231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.34 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cilic | 37c | 2,273$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.2 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Ruud | 61c | 2,011$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.26 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…883ebacked Cilic | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cilic | 38c | 1,411$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.66 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ruud | 67c | 1,361$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.57 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cilic | 38c | 1,173$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.49 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…0b43backed Cilic | 42c | 842.14$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cilic | 40c | 838$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.2 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Cilic | 36c | 829.89$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.76 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ruud | 70c | 608.19$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.15 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7f…90c5backed Cilic | 67c | 593.53$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cilic | 25c | 543.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Ruud | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 401 | 41.9%168 W · 233 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Ruud | 57c | 458.1$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.1 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Ruud | 49c | 404.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.41 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cilic | 55c | 399.52$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.14 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Ruud | 64c | 399.36$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Ruud | 36c | 383.83$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.65 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Cilic | 52c | 379.45$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ruud | 59c | 342.06$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.24 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Cilic | 6c | 324.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3405…5101backed Cilic | 39c | 282.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Ruud | 38c | 249.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.65 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Cilic | 47c | 237.69$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Cilic | 40c | 209.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…51a3backed Ruud | 62c | 193.44$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Ruud | 62c | 190.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Ruud | 64c | 183.6$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Ruud | 57c | 164.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Ruud | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cilic | 37c | 163.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Ruud | 35c | 162.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Ruud | 62c | 162.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Ruud | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Cilic | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Cilic | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Cilic | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Ruud | 35c | 120$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 248 | 37.5%93 W · 155 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b32…8166backed Ruud | 63c | 119.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Ruud | 64c | 84.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Cilic | 39c | 80.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…ec1bbacked Ruud | 49c | 63.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Ruud | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Ruud | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cilic | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Cilic | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…c856backed Cilic | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Ruud | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd57…a167backed Cilic | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Ruud | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…9687backed Ruud | 76c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…f2fabacked Ruud | 62c | 16.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.