Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8c2dc784cdd6356099855c04246da8097c7d31ca38182afe151f2bc57b168d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 68c | 1,151$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.86 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.58 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 300.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 293.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.48 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 25c | 281.34$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 29c | 230.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.41 | 288 | 37.5%108 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…ce27backed No | 72c | 145$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 129.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 107.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 32c | 101.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…a428backed Yes | 77c | 90.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 57.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 34c | 53.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 47 | 97.9%46 W · 1 L | +25.0wins | +0.53per pick | 45cpaid | +150.4%equal weight | 89+0.35 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 24c | 51.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 637 | 50.1%319 W · 318 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…cb63backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 78c | 35.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 44c | 34.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 48c | 33.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,912 | 55.5%1,062 W · 850 L | +6.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…6510backed Yes | 66c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 74c | 28.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 239 | 49.4%118 W · 121 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 27.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…efaebacked No | 64c | 23.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 64c | 23.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 48c | 23.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 686 | 58.6%402 W · 284 L | +51.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 21.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 21.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 70c | 21.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 17.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.