Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Rice Owls
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8cdbaeff31fb0c39ae91c89dda97eb4ea2bf3558fcc36330abd5dc9d54c39d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rice Owlsof Arkansas State Red Wolves, Rice Owls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 70c | 7,200$5,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,040 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Rice Owls | 30c | 2,893$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.76 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Rice Owls | 30c | 2,412$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.21 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…aab4backed Rice Owls | 76c | 2,041$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae9…74acbacked Rice Owls | 12c | 1,330$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.81 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 1c | 1,186$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Rice Owls | 25c | 821.61$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.51 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 65c | 652.05$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.31 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 15c | 549.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Rice Owls | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 55c | 393.8$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.07 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Rice Owls | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 294 | 44.6%131 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Rice Owls | 30c | 274.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.21 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 57c | 222$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.3 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Rice Owls | 12c | 207.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.44 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 41c | 199.79$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 74c | 171.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 66c | 150.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 402 | 52.7%212 W · 190 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Rice Owls | 37c | 133$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rice Owls | 10c | 129.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.09 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Rice Owls | 44c | 112.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Rice Owls | 46c | 105$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Rice Owls | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ea…e3e3backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Rice Owls | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x205b…d66abacked Rice Owls | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…5d12backed Arkansas State Red Wolves | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Arkansas State Red Wolves | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Rice Owlsthis page
- Spread: Arkansas State Red Wolves (-3.5)Rice Owls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.