Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8f58b5b361a81abff8e3fcf6178f934843af92f49b405832bf47fbdcf4e611e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 12c | 800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 486.19$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 407.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 4c | 401.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc4…4d11backed Yes | 28c | 334.35$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd8…f169backed Yes | 3c | 333.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 22c | 228.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9067…8cf5backed Yes | 5c | 220.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…e023backed No | 74c | 190.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +397.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 13c | 185.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 9c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 14c | 167.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 152.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 38c | 152.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 63c | 151$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 125.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 18c | 113.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 108.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 15c | 98.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x846b…63b6backed Yes | 14c | 87.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 25c | 85.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 22c | 64.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 25c | 59.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 58.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed6…85aebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 28c | 47.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 68c | 44.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 38.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…da82backed No | 66c | 37.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed No | 63c | 35.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked No | 76c | 31.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…49a4backed No | 60c | 30.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 35c | 29.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 29.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 26.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 72c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 44c | 24.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 70c | 22.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…3679backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8292…0482backed No | 60c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 59c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.