Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135bf47ac180689fad0ea2cc73de4f3de209914a1aeb5256b05f78efbaa52085
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 1c | 6,142$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 714$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 15c | 545.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.15 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 5c | 513.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.84 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 389.21$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 10c | 309.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 10c | 299.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 46c | 282.46$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 26c | 212.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 187.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 67c | 184.59$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 32c | 160.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 47c | 160.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 126.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 23c | 125.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.12 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 115.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 106.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 11c | 102.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 48c | 90.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 47c | 89.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 17c | 88.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 21c | 88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 13c | 87.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 25c | 81.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 25c | 81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.75 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 75c | 66.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 61.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 54c | 56.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…cc2cbacked Yes | 80c | 53.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 68 | 94.1%64 W · 4 L | +12.7wins | +0.19per pick | 75cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 21c | 52.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 24c | 51.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 22c | 46.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 32c | 39.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 37.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…2fe3backed No | 79c | 32.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 30.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 28.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 77c | 26.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 61c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 73c | 24.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 62c | 20.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.