Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8fd2c34694081bbca078841ade88d44df4056919db683ee01b4a0b9e6bc6550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,287$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.03 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 32c | 396.54$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cea…cc13backed Yes | 36c | 293.24$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.32 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 240.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 235.87$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 66c | 196.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 78c | 193.43$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 23c | 191.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 54c | 165.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 19c | 158.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 156.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 80c | 124.4$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 19c | 117.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 20c | 112.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 75c | 112$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 111.4$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 30c | 103.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972a…aee7backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 99.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 95.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 94.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 85.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 82.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 78c | 70.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 26c | 70.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 73c | 70.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…b200backed Yes | 21c | 67.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 25c | 61.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb344…31eabacked No | 67c | 60.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 79c | 59.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 50.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 60c | 49.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 41.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 74c | 39.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 32.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 31.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…b027backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 74c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 17.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on July 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.