NFL · resolved market
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc90658652195164cdf5865ae90ce34b1c66e5ec7ef06b4468aac862b0b3b9f18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Yes | 46c | 7,001$3,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,246.4 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 24c | 2,173$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.98 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 1,003$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…65adbacked Yes | 36c | 853$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 14c | 422.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 8c | 304.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 6c | 224.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 63c | 222$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 209 | 50.7%106 W · 103 L | -15.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 70c | 72.73$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 233 | 51.9%121 W · 112 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North?this page
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North?Yes won
- Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.