NFL · resolved market
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7bd89eaca30607da434e10d699422f6ee52145f2101bfc0949b0687d8e48933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 8,192$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes | 47c | 5,000$2,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7382…dafcbacked No | 50c | 4,901$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,452.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…8eb1backed Yes | 50c | 4,705$2,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.76 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 7c | 2,839$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.17 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 25c | 1,959$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -12.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,750$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.2 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 23c | 1,600$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…1179backed Yes | 26c | 1,369$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes | 67c | 1,125$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.88 | 125 | 70.4%88 W · 37 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,120$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.22 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 51c | 1,084$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.51 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yes | 35c | 1,000$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.03 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 32c | 900$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.4 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…99f2backed Yes | 15c | 840$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed Yes | 62c | 717$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.8 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 39c | 631.32$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.35 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 616.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 50c | 456.56$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.45 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 45c | 331.51$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 33c | 328.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.32 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 297.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 270.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 70c | 261.98$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 42c | 172.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 24c | 168.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…0905backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…8719backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…7f80backed Yes | 18c | 117.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 180 | 9.4%17 W · 163 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 32c | 95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 40c | 81.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 35c | 67.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked No | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…1844backed Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…6ec3backed Yes | 66c | 51.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…8781backed No | 34c | 50.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…5a91backed Yes | 66c | 48.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…2185backed Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff64…c395backed No | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…48b9backed No | 34c | 46.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37a…8eafbacked No | 34c | 41.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…bba2backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf5…098fbacked No | 34c | 38.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd919…6ea5backed Yes | 66c | 38.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa118…a981backed Yes | 66c | 37.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…b9ddbacked Yes | 44c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x676b…72f3backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2b…6f16backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ba…885bbacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffaf…842abacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…20b9backed No | 62c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f9…f191backed Yes | 41c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…7761backed Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…76c6backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…dd1bbacked Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4c…5f53backed Yes | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf14f…f0debacked No | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…e732backed Yes | 66c | 28.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…d499backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…6d1dbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe616…27eabacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28d…1897backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c35…a426backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5283…a0c7backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…8783backed Yes | 66c | 21.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42a…bf9ebacked Yes | 66c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebf…b917backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f7…db88backed Yes | 70c | 19.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North?this page
- Will the Baltimore Ravens win the AFC North?Yes won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the AFC North?No won
- Will the Cleveland Browns win the AFC North?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.