Premier League · resolved market
Will Villa win on 2024-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc939e2bbf803fc2381929049731f2bf6c4aa4d6d50facb3a4b47924aff94412d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 65c | 5,606$3,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,644.28 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 67c | 855$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.3 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…2193backed Yes | 35c | 571.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 78c | 520.27$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 155 | 54.8%85 W · 70 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 39c | 483.95$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.21 | 156 | 36.5%57 W · 99 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed No | 66c | 371.12$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.94 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…dfa1backed Yes | 35c | 321.63$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 34c | 305$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.3 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 32c | 259.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.48 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 65c | 234.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.29 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 65c | 221.98$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.29 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 65c | 221.6$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5047…db74backed Yes | 22c | 210.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed Yes | 35c | 200.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.14 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…e793backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb65d…3757backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…c1f3backed Yes | 33c | 189.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.29 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…93dfbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…2be5backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…694abacked Yes | 34c | 138.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3362…8cb4backed Yes | 34c | 138.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…f555backed No | 67c | 134.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 182 | 60.4%110 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 54c | 116.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.68 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…f6cfbacked Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…825abacked No | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…3b80backed Yes | 34c | 102.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6900…9ccebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd128…c0ebbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…fb74backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +208%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 65c | 99.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…3e3fbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…c512backed Yes | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…9956backed Yes | 39c | 89.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 35c | 85.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…b19dbacked Yes | 36c | 82.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefcb…b6ddbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 66c | 76.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87c4…490ebacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…10d5backed Yes | 32c | 74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…3407backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed Yes | 36c | 61.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…59f6backed Yes | 34c | 59.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe286…7735backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…76a2backed Yes | 35c | 56.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb841…791abacked Yes | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…be43backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…2093backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…b65fbacked No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…f1c8backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +55%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…f982backed Yes | 34c | 43.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb91…a6d5backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…2ab2backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd3…c7bebacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…20eebacked Yes | 35c | 37.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…962dbacked Yes | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villa win on 2024-10-19?this page
- Will Fulham vs. Villa end in a draw?No won
- Will Fulham win on 2024-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.