Champions League · resolved market
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc948bd204353c1a403f5ca887024abde71246970f589727d4e25bc2705f7bc46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chelsea FCof Chelsea FC, FC Barcelona
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Chelsea FC | 26c | 4,197$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,113.81 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f06…e795backed FC Barcelona | 77c | 1,045$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Chelsea FC | 58c | 850$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed FC Barcelona | 76c | 837.5$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed FC Barcelona | 79c | 503.17$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked FC Barcelona | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed FC Barcelona | 62c | 376.08$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Barcelona | 66c | 357.8$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.77 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked FC Barcelona | 42c | 311$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Chelsea FC | 68c | 299.12$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Chelsea FC | 21c | 273$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Chelsea FC | 24c | 165.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.39 | 434 | 27.4%119 W · 315 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed FC Barcelona | 74c | 93.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Chelsea FC | 21c | 88.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494f…e10ebacked Chelsea FC | 26c | 76.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821a…f1fbbacked FC Barcelona | 79c | 63.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed FC Barcelona | 79c | 59.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked FC Barcelona | 50c | 56.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Chelsea FC | 22c | 55.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…9364backed FC Barcelona | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Chelsea FC | 74c | 54.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Chelsea FC | 20c | 52.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…2394backed FC Barcelona | 77c | 51.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed FC Barcelona | 73c | 49.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…86e1backed FC Barcelona | 80c | 42.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53de…d34bbacked Chelsea FC | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed FC Barcelona | 74c | 34.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked FC Barcelona | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Chelsea FC | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +122%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5366…73aabacked FC Barcelona | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c70…0340backed FC Barcelona | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed FC Barcelona | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…edcebacked FC Barcelona | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed FC Barcelona | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.9wins | -0.29per pick | 64cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed FC Barcelona | 78c | 19.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)this page
- Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Chelsea FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.