Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc94d56e0cf343201baaee66c855a56e6342c87a8c3cc2c6b4b3e24632921dc82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,819
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,819 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 359.98$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 40c | 311.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.35 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 50c | 195.18$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 42c | 179.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81f…4a4bbacked No | 50c | 133.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 50c | 132.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.35 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 117.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 111.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 110.72$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 105.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 51c | 96.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 64c | 89.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 52c | 81.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 79.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1f…b645backed Yes | 47c | 72.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…229fbacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 58.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed Yes | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…e06fbacked Yes | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 52.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 56c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 53c | 50.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472b…5d5fbacked Yes | 38c | 49.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 48.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 50c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 47c | 44.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 42.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 44c | 33.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 44c | 33.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 33.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…52c7backed No | 57c | 29.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 26.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…dc4dbacked Yes | 59c | 25.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 48c | 22.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7a…8465backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.