Fifa International · resolved market
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9547a4e87b55a84eb4cd323f0375d2f6df424d7fdfeaba65a0b0361a05017f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,455
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 12c | 4,320$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.37 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1060…d28bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,768$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 8c | 2,553$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.09 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Yes | 10c | 2,367$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.68 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…2988backed Yes | 5c | 1,902$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…e517backed Yes | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 10c | 1,120$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 127 | 29.9%38 W · 89 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…5518backed Yes | 11c | 978.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.65 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes | 3c | 510$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 257 | 19.1%49 W · 208 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 237 | 29.1%69 W · 168 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 10c | 407$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 406 | 49.8%202 W · 204 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5572…f01ebacked Yes | 10c | 388.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 10c | 350.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 514 | 29.4%151 W · 363 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca7…9567backed Yes | 10c | 345.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 9c | 339.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815b…a1c7backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 12c | 270$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Yes | 10c | 252$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 630 | 35.7%225 W · 405 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Yes | 10c | 236.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1988…a534backed Yes | 14c | 235.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 9c | 205.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…9e5ebacked Yes | 10c | 204$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…fedebacked Yes | 11c | 203.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…dabfbacked Yes | 10c | 186$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 10c | 155.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…5cb0backed Yes | 8c | 138.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 255 | 37.6%96 W · 159 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…9460backed Yes | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 356 | 19.4%69 W · 287 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 112.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 226 | 34.1%77 W · 149 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…1a30backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…517cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 186 | 14.5%27 W · 159 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Yes | 13c | 86.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 697 | 44.9%313 W · 384 L | +18.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw?this page
- Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06?Yes won
- Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.