Serie A · resolved market
Will Atalanta vs. Lazio end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9584ed4f6c4013a6c1ca2f98574a48ff0f084dc0cd255b3e3d13780f70357f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 69c | 2,720$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.73 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 1,888$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 36c | 1,670$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.58 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,399$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.11 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 64c | 1,280$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.8 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1770…9483backed No | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…6147backed Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…ab80backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked No | 13c | 895.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 873.24$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.14 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 40c | 622$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.2 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 77c | 524.68$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.92 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed No | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…9266backed Yes | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 60c | 396.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 36c | 370.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 242 | 38.4%93 W · 149 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 68c | 288$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Yes | 72c | 210.01$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 207.55$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.55 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfa…b8f9backed No | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 57.5%88 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 45c | 108$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…5e38backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640d…51e2backed Yes | 66c | 99.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 66c | 66.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 38c | 62.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 39c | 38.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…a99abacked Yes | 66c | 31.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b9…7ed6backed Yes | 67c | 29.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…3238backed Yes | 78c | 20.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…896ebacked Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atalanta vs. Lazio end in a draw?this page
- Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-19?No won
- Will Lazio win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.