Serie A · resolved market
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f24f893ae46125b348535cb3f95c318ec8ba5bfcc7ae641271863ed86cb1b95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 80c | 6,170$4,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.51 | 161 | 54%87 W · 74 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c3…3e00backed Yes | 21c | 4,762$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 79c | 4,039$3,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.21 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 2,867$2,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.34 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 2,550$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.5 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 15c | 2,318$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 22c | 1,829$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.3 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,026$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.52 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 20c | 799.72$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…7163backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…9266backed Yes | 21c | 333.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x694e…8d20backed Yes | 11c | 250.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 10c | 215.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 22c | 166.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…5e66backed Yes | 19c | 141.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 21c | 129.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a0…16e9backed Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 19c | 98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…f37fbacked Yes | 22c | 97.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb7…95b2backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f2…876dbacked Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f7…3643backed Yes | 21c | 68.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ba…2589backed Yes | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed Yes | 19c | 61.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e16…52d2backed Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf69…aa05backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lazio win on 2025-10-19?this page
- Will Atalanta vs. Lazio end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.