Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc96345888b0b13bce7e4e3d8fae9b448ea1146ee4ace9a3e652c4586067d8ab1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 905.57$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.32 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…5f49backed No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 40c | 442.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 241.36$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 62c | 137.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 137.12$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 134.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 113.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ff…4fe2backed No | 66c | 112.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed No | 69c | 98.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 93.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 92.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 74.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 72.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 59c | 71.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 29c | 68.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked No | 73c | 61.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 30c | 45.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 58c | 42.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 42.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…b752backed No | 73c | 40.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 33.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 65c | 33.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 64c | 32.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 33c | 32.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 29.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 40c | 28.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 71c | 26.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 73c | 23.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca61…3e3abacked No | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 70c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 65c | 19.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.