MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9a7c7fbd0b9864027fcad14566dbc88c57d091f4e5ad964e868cbaf9cfd2a1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 7,467$5,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,002.97 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…d417backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 5,017$1,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,261.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 4,981$1,744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 1,551$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 1,241$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.48 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 669.31$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.21 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…c697backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 519.3$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 440.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.77 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 411$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.27 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 331$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.67 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb3…cbafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 130.18$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 104.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 65.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 53.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 47.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 40.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.