MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa403eccdd39f56e0cd1b60857a3ff73804b9f5e0fcfc19c540c85f26f49f498c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Cleveland Guardians, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 30,000$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,499.94 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 26,745$17,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,360.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…d417backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 4,831$1,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 791.68$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 584.62$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.62 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 550$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 503$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 451.66$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.08 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 374.98$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 168.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 151.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 107.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 96.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 89.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 89.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 86.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 85.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 84.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 72.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…1ce4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 43.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 31.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.