MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5575b94d33ff0803fc4c015f1cd7bd578d6f53c90ee9f447408a99801a16a437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 52c | 10,000$5,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,210.74 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 30c | 9,293$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,830.59 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 67c | 5,608$3,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,830.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Under | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.99 | 122 | 55.7%68 W · 54 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 46c | 3,865$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.83 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 48c | 3,812$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.24 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 2,940$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,517.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 2,065$969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.66 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 1,500$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.21 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…a1e4backed Under | 51c | 1,306$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.85 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…2b3cbacked Over | 41c | 1,222$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.95 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 1,178$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 48c | 683.99$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.36 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 47c | 661.63$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.28 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 53c | 648.84$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.19 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 56c | 644.84$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.11 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 52c | 642.31$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 48c | 390$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 48c | 352.04$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 34c | 349.61$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.87 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 42c | 239.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 34c | 215.6$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 30c | 191$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 180.97$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 77c | 160.05$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 49c | 140.37$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 127.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…b71dbacked Under | 29c | 123.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b4d2backed Over | 50c | 117.05$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 46c | 107.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.48 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 49c | 97.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 52c | 93.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 56c | 87.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Over | 41c | 86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 49c | 77.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 71.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Under | 26c | 69.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 33c | 64.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 49c | 64.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.93 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c3…13e5backed Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 53c | 51.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…e747backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…7409backed Under | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 44c | 26.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 47c | 25.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 51c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 47c | 24.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6c…f3eabacked Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…e388backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 71c | 16.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansPittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.