Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9b43ab03f56cb0bff75a9be47e8528bcc0c3929c37008dfbf601074d7d74d82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 29c | 1,058$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.75 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 21c | 428.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 16c | 397.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 384.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.01 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 74c | 336.75$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 279.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed No | 78c | 254.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 17c | 245.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 226.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 204.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 196$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 183.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 21c | 154.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 151.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 146.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 145.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 140.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 124.05$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 118.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed Yes | 16c | 118$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 101.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…fd8abacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 70c | 92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 75.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 71.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 148 | 78.4%116 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939a…ba17backed No | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 73c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 21c | 56.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 27c | 56.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…bb77backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…6d71backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 69c | 43.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 40.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 27.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 70c | 27.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 79c | 25.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 22.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 70c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 69c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 77c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 76c | 17.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 74c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 69c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 76c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.