Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ea4fa5d7a3d6e022da41d617f2b5fef29162f487d03a909c5554e7ba1793a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 73c | 998.24$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.48 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 21c | 893$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.01 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 429.29$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 25c | 377.39$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 348.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked No | 78c | 333.64$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.91 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 29c | 271.38$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.35 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 62c | 270.44$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 73c | 269.58$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.58 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 262.9$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 26c | 258.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.32 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 253.59$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.04 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 31c | 227.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 208.03$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 201.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 182.96$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8e…9665backed Yes | 28c | 181.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.64 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 170.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 166.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 165$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 164.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 163.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 150.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 54c | 149.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 144$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 143.31$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 36c | 135.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 21c | 133.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…28d5backed No | 76c | 131.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 24c | 130.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 33c | 128.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked No | 69c | 125.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 12c | 122.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 76c | 119.03$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 21c | 114$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.55 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 111.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 109.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 24c | 109.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 76c | 103$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 27c | 88.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 88.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 84.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 32c | 82.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.61 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 66c | 73.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 69.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 27c | 68.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 73c | 61.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 49c | 59.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 75c | 58.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4095…24e2backed Yes | 30c | 55.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 58c | 50.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d8…a490backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked No | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 47.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…e109backed Yes | 28c | 43.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 57c | 43.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…336cbacked Yes | 27c | 43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 41.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 40.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 40.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 42c | 39.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 36.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…c118backed No | 73c | 36.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 45c | 35.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba97…d2a3backed No | 74c | 35.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125d…baf6backed No | 74c | 32.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ae…ab03backed No | 74c | 31.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 71c | 30.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 74c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…bb77backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked No | 79c | 26.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 45c | 23.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 49c | 21.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…05a6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.