Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebd31dc4aca3a31f7bb34452ebfffe4552b6d8cad594d81510dd07c232e060d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 42c | 1,128$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.33 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 349.05$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 262.9$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 250.51$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 61c | 235.3$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 225$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 220.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 66c | 220.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 218.01$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.71 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 208.76$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 198.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…daccbacked No | 56c | 183.18$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 56c | 172.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 165$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 154$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 151.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 46c | 142$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 140.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2979…d76fbacked Yes | 34c | 134.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 133.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 55c | 118.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 15c | 108.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 55c | 93.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 44c | 92.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 63c | 91.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 41c | 91.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9b…0cc4backed No | 59c | 90.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 35c | 84.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 82.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 56c | 82.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed Yes | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 74.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 71.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…bb77backed No | 51c | 66.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…9caebacked Yes | 46c | 65.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 17c | 63.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 62.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 60.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked No | 66c | 60.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 56.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 56.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 55.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 54.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 56c | 52.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 51.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 55c | 51.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 40c | 50.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 42c | 50.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 43c | 49.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 44c | 46.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 45.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 45.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked No | 52c | 44.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfd…dd23backed No | 59c | 44.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 57c | 42.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 41.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 40.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 39.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 60c | 37.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 46c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 54c | 37.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 44c | 35.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 29c | 35.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 47c | 34.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Yes | 44c | 32.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 53c | 32.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…ee1abacked Yes | 47c | 30.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 60cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 65c | 30.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 43c | 29.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 38c | 29.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 75c | 28.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf77e…4c8dbacked Yes | 47c | 25.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 57c | 23.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 57c | 21.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 68c | 21.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C or higher on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.