F1 · resolved market
Will Alex Palou win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9bdfdbfe7c19aab1c34c4295e40889d175b8ef1c3e6dfa0d1a114c3f3f036f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 598.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 466.85$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 80c | 344.79$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…e79bbacked Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…9574backed Yes | 23c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked No | 71c | 90.59$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 72c | 52.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…64a7backed Yes | 28c | 45.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…224abacked Yes | 28c | 42.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 20.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 79c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alex Palou win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?this page
- Will Alexander Rossi win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Christian Rasmussen win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Conor Daly win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will David Malukas win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Felix Rosenqvist win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?Yes won
- Will Josef Newgarden win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Marcus Armstrong win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Pato O'Ward win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Romain Grosjean win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Santino Ferrucci win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Scott Dixon win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Scott McLaughlin win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
- Will Will Power win the 2026 Indianapolis 500?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.