Lol · resolved market
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9df110d5d817d676f1e375b63da04a96bd28e894c3ca2737eb43fc1797a709f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e32…ab65backed Under | 55c | 3,647$2,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.98 | 2,156 | 53.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Over | 45c | 1,968$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.59 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6918…782bbacked Under | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.98 | 1,501 | 54.5%818 W · 683 L | +34.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 53c | 1,600$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.7 | 1,794 | 51.1%917 W · 877 L | +50.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 47c | 834.19$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.84 | 1,113 | 39%434 W · 679 L | -44.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 45c | 776.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.65 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…0b96backed Over | 45c | 662.57$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.81 | 282 | 35.1%99 W · 183 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed Over | 44c | 543$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.92 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdccf…faeabacked Over | 45c | 536.2$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.29 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Over | 44c | 447.73$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ff…8a60backed Over | 45c | 410.79$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 44c | 401.66$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.73 | 219 | 43.8%96 W · 123 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…f357backed Over | 46c | 398$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.08 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -12.4wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Over | 47c | 376.34$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.88 | 545 | 29.7%162 W · 383 L | -34.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Over | 44c | 347.89$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.07 | 169 | 33.1%56 W · 113 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Over | 42c | 300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 53c | 285.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 1,385 | 45.1%625 W · 760 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…e61abacked Over | 47c | 191.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 56c | 180.69$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 46c | 93.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Under | 54c | 87.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 447 | 45.2%202 W · 245 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Over | 25c | 74.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 580 | 42.4%246 W · 334 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked Over | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 617 | 46.5%287 W · 330 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…645cbacked Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 454 | 44.3%201 W · 253 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 45c | 54.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6862…6648backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 70c | 40.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e2…38febacked Over | 44c | 40.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ba…7721backed Under | 59c | 31.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 57c | 24.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | -21.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 57c | 23.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1,310 | 49.2%644 W · 666 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Under | 55c | 23.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 840 | 41%344 W · 496 L | -38.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2864…c074backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 55c | 20.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 343 | 57.1%196 W · 147 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac71…f74cbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Under | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 997 | 47.1%470 W · 527 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?this page
- First Blood in Game 2?LGD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: EDward Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendLGD Gaming won
- LoL: EDward Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- LoL: EDward Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.