Earnings · resolved market
Will Circle Internet Group (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f014552f247c6e6747bf4e9916732818ebcb16ad8c3748935dbd1721eb97d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf080…88b0backed No | 27c | 1,765$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…21cfbacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 20c | 400.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 62c | 397$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.63 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes | 72c | 350.01$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed Yes | 71c | 309.56$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e6…a59dbacked Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d50…7594backed No | 24c | 245.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 245.17$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 73c | 222$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 47c | 214.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 65c | 174.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 29c | 165.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…b7aebacked Yes | 65c | 154.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7c…eca0backed No | 33c | 150.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac3a…798dbacked Yes | 47c | 145.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 73c | 132.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 113.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 48c | 62.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 72c | 45.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…3428backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.