South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9fd2e42d861a3d80e39ee37df5612d8052f44e3cc6734e46ccc955fc3185d03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 35c | 2,222$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.38 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 2,094$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.33 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 65c | 1,935$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.35 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Over | 43c | 1,425$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.49 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 49c | 1,300$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 6c | 635.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.54 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Over | 48c | 599.99$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 34c | 569.38$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.56 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 569.28$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.57 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 52c | 560$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 36c | 474.04$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.42 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 383.55$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.23 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 55c | 363.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.63 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Under | 42c | 344.03$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.98 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 50c | 266.24$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 66c | 232$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 57c | 220.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 76c | 199.7$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 206 | 65%134 W · 72 L | +24.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 73c | 184.3$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 69c | 150.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 65c | 136.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 52c | 115.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…c953backed Over | 49c | 113$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 24c | 106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 55c | 102.6$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 65c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0614…ff8bbacked Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 79c | 38.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…0193backed Over | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…4664backed Over | 51c | 29.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 42c | 25.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 1.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.