Tennis · resolved market
ITF Astana: Danial Rakhmatullayev vs Shunsuke Mitsui
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2e4b75357e0c55dd2694d22f853266baa146a3ae61eba5f8125d7690b96451
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shunsuke Mitsuiof Danial Rakhmatullayev, Shunsuke Mitsui
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 80c | 7,300$5,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.25 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Danial Rakhmatullayev | 15c | 3,790$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.15 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Danial Rakhmatullayev | 12c | 1,733$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Danial Rakhmatullayev | 13c | 1,242$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…9ab0backed Danial Rakhmatullayev | 28c | 918.67$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.85 | 672 | 39.1%263 W · 409 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…cbfbbacked Danial Rakhmatullayev | 36c | 663.04$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.79 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Danial Rakhmatullayev | 20c | 640.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…3d5cbacked Danial Rakhmatullayev | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 303 | 53.5%162 W · 141 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…95e8backed Danial Rakhmatullayev | 44c | 460$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.4 | 248 | 51.2%127 W · 121 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Danial Rakhmatullayev | 17c | 404.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Danial Rakhmatullayev | 8c | 381$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b6…5858backed Danial Rakhmatullayev | 11c | 324.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 230 | 30.4%70 W · 160 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a1…1c91backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 65c | 153.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 203 | 60.1%122 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…a6c0backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 71c | 133.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Danial Rakhmatullayev | 18c | 118.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…b070backed Danial Rakhmatullayev | 30c | 117.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…572cbacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 60c | 109.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 472 | 52.1%246 W · 226 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Danial Rakhmatullayev | 39c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 71c | 44.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487c…75a4backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 78cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Shunsuke Mitsui | 62c | 24.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 55c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Shunsuke Mitsui | 73c | 15.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.