Tennis · resolved market

Adelaide International: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Clara Tauson

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca4cc844c3e7765b489310d3de8456611ec300ebba0b09dff50394ad2a74c409

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Tomljanovicof Tomljanovic, Tauson
Resolved: Jan 12, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $17,892
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,390

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,892 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x437c…f458backed Tomljanovic	44c	2,080$915 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,164.71	124	42.7%53 W · 71 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae90…f6c8backed Tauson	44c	1,777$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.1	69	37.7%26 W · 43 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Tomljanovic	57c	1,627$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$707.46	8,217	45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L	+166.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f78…bfcabacked Tauson	3c	1,531$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.01	87	13.8%12 W · 75 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e13…670bbacked Tauson	45c	945.21$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.62	51	64.7%33 W · 18 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	59cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Tomljanovic	49c	565.88$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.18	2,982	39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L	-109.1wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Tauson	56c	552.12$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.94	1,655	50.1%829 W · 826 L	+30.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…db49backed Tauson	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Tomljanovic	58c	307.98$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.86	373	39.1%146 W · 227 L	-11.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Tauson	29c	307.21$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.29	1,218	41.1%500 W · 718 L	-30.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-16%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Tauson	56c	300$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	466	49.8%232 W · 234 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…ab9fbacked Tomljanovic	47c	252.47$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$133.81	129	42.6%55 W · 74 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Tauson	47c	231.04$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.06	2,865	44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L	+6.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Tomljanovic	41c	200.37$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.3	551	43.4%239 W · 312 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Tauson	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	177	41.8%74 W · 103 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8be…f991backed Tomljanovic	41c	199.99$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117	70	27.1%19 W · 51 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Tomljanovic	57c	193.42$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.17	1,026	46.8%480 W · 546 L	+14.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Tauson	60c	192.06$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.24	1,158	44.4%514 W · 644 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Tauson	42c	178.81$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.65	276	27.2%75 W · 201 L	-25.2wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb06…4ababacked Tauson	63c	163.73$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.25	287	54%155 W · 132 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed Tauson	10c	162.36$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	108	5.6%6 W · 102 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6fa…51e5backed Tomljanovic	62c	161.23$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.69	262	44.7%117 W · 145 L	-15.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d11…0c08backed Tomljanovic	50c	143.44$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.72	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Tauson	44c	127.59$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.14	7,018	43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L	+124.9wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Tauson	54c	125$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	7,724	47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L	+41.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ede…d6a7backed Tauson	58c	125$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.5	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Tauson	40c	111.17$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	2,068	34.9%721 W · 1,347 L	-44.2wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed Tauson	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	138	16.7%23 W · 115 L	+7.6wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+46%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc669…53eabacked Tomljanovic	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.05	72	66.7%48 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked Tauson	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	318	19.2%61 W · 257 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5699…418dbacked Tauson	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	76	44.7%34 W · 42 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf164…e98fbacked Tauson	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Tauson	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	733	50.9%373 W · 360 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed Tomljanovic	46c	85$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	138	44.2%61 W · 77 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c8…006cbacked Tauson	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	59cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Tauson	58c	71.42$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.42	2,537	53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L	+61.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Tauson	46c	69.86$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.43	884	55%486 W · 398 L	+37.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9004…1d2cbacked Tomljanovic	44c	68.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.18	214	55.1%118 W · 96 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Tauson	48c	66.87$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.87	2,489	45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L	-27.4wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…0215backed Tauson	58c	59.05$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.25	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.28per pick	45cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8ab…f5c1backed Tomljanovic	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	219	49.3%108 W · 111 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1e5…18f4backed Tauson	59c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	38	68.4%26 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	73cpaid	-7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Tauson	39c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	161	50.3%81 W · 80 L	+6.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c82…05cfbacked Tauson	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	107	55.1%59 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Tauson	39c	47.68$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	-11.0wins	-0.16per pick	35cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xe759…3648backed Tauson	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	155	51.6%80 W · 75 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tauson	34c	35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.85	1,852	44.5%825 W · 1,027 L	-20.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdc…c974backed Tauson	58c	34.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	51	60.8%31 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19c6…42a6backed Tauson	38c	34.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa21e…0b18backed Tauson	52c	21.36$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.4wins	-0.19per pick	34cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb78a…61c4backed Tauson	58c	20.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	153	64.1%98 W · 55 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7789…d6c0backed Tauson	54c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	94	55.3%52 W · 42 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Adelaide International: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Clara Tauson

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market