Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6279647ed3c6b870cc849428751c2e5979d04154c36d5f1194add1af6e2cec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 46c | 1,349$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.48 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 248.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 43c | 198.4$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.26 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 198.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 198.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 188.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 28c | 168.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.41 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 54c | 139$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 54c | 139$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 32c | 134.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 69c | 133.09$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.2 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 15c | 87.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…9d1bbacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 28c | 72.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 69.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 27c | 67.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 56c | 52.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 49.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 40c | 42.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 24c | 41.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 33c | 41.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…945ebacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…1a28backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 36.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a5…34d1backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…838abacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 64c | 32.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45ca…729abacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 54c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 52c | 24.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 54c | 24.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 56c | 21.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 18.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 5?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 5?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.