Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca6d22ff2d2e02029e459fdf2927b5a8462720de0e7934680c350da6ed434287
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 52c | 408.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.42 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 52c | 210.86$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 208$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked Yes | 37c | 196$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.76 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 61c | 171.85$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 154.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 40c | 153.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 151.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.93 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 143.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 140.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 140.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 28c | 138.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.27 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 126.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 120.49$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 110.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 73c | 110.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 105.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 38c | 101.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…62bebacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 91.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 42c | 89.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 73.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 61c | 63.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 49c | 63.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 61.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 45c | 54.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 50.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 34c | 49.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 30c | 48.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 64c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 34c | 43.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d3…f6d9backed No | 65c | 40.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7211…6734backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 28c | 39.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 46c | 37.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 62c | 33.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed Yes | 40c | 27.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 61c | 26.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 26.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 25.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…52a1backed Yes | 57c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 60c | 23.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0752…7ac0backed No | 61c | 20.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 54c | 20.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 57c | 20.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…02c3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…61b7backed No | 69c | 18.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 18.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 18.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…8baebacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 70c | 17.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Yes | 69c | 15.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 132 | 74.2%98 W · 34 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.