MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca74fc614ba27ce81d97d951d4323851a32fb713deb88b3bcb355d090099d458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,492 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 1,134$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.34 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 514.63$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 484.21$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.86 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 465$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.25 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 252.22$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Chicago White Sox | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 197.38$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 189.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Chicago White Sox | 46c | 149.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 143.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago White Sox | 51c | 100.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 852 | 35.8%305 W · 547 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 82.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Seattle Mariners | 56c | 60.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Chicago White Sox | 44c | 60.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked Chicago White Sox | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Seattle Mariners | 55c | 58.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Seattle Mariners | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 42.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 41.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Chicago White Sox | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +86%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Seattle Mariners | 56c | 32.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Chicago White Sox | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 28.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Seattle Mariners | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.