Premier League · resolved market
FA Cup: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Chelsea (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca7a37547494d7179428b6e447e9eaedaee8eeeb7394998232505a3128c91edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brightonof Brighton, Chelsea
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Chelsea | 47c | 4,368$2,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,039.49 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Brighton | 47c | 4,303$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.66 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Chelsea | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 211 | 53.1%112 W · 99 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Brighton | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.99 | 321 | 58.9%189 W · 132 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Brighton | 64c | 1,980$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.8 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked Brighton | 42c | 1,103$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.43 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Brighton | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1e…1f0bbacked Chelsea | 56c | 900$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.40per pick | 52cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Brighton | 44c | 689.56$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Chelsea | 59c | 659.59$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.16 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Chelsea | 56c | 445.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Chelsea | 61c | 411.11$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.78 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…207ebacked Chelsea | 57c | 371.25$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…9d7dbacked Chelsea | 57c | 333.88$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Chelsea | 57c | 265.33$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Brighton | 46c | 181.59$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.22 | 342 | 51.8%177 W · 165 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Chelsea | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Chelsea | 29c | 167.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 91 | 11%10 W · 81 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98ff…40d8backed Chelsea | 57c | 157.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Chelsea | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…9130backed Brighton | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe307…464abacked Chelsea | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Chelsea | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…37eabacked Chelsea | 59c | 67.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…515cbacked Brighton | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…73d5backed Brighton | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Brighton | 47c | 51.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Chelsea | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -42%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Brighton | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 160 | 60%96 W · 64 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…fd30backed Chelsea | 57c | 47.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c8…0408backed Chelsea | 55c | 43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb5…75d2backed Brighton | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…2660backed Chelsea | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb9…2daebacked Brighton | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Brighton | 77c | 34.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -9.4wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4429…2e4dbacked Chelsea | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a0…2253backed Chelsea | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d9…023abacked Chelsea | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…5683backed Chelsea | 56c | 30.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd16…7467backed Brighton | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…e9f4backed Chelsea | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Brighton | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…20f3backed Chelsea | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Brighton | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Chelsea | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e7…e9fdbacked Chelsea | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.