South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca8f15d31263388e42002d7d06eb1de2f677f22be7a1e52979bc25c2205ec5e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,983
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,025$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.2 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 44c | 1,800$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.97 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc2…4c80backed Over | 71c | 1,384$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.6 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 38c | 1,267$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.4 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 42c | 998.77$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.29 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 729.4$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.79 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 29c | 724.43$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.35 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 31c | 674.86$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.66 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 42c | 491.27$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.19 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 38c | 478.24$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 421.57$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.68 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 20c | 406.95$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 29c | 389.69$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.96 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 49c | 353.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.88 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 57c | 340.84$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 13c | 292.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…83f9backed Over | 46c | 243.6$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…e71ebacked Under | 35c | 242.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 58c | 239.6$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.98 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 41c | 229.37$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 60c | 206.08$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 54c | 188.93$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb792…fa38backed Over | 11c | 146.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 52c | 144.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 134.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.68 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 49c | 118.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 48c | 113.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 71c | 98.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.76 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 78c | 97.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Over | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 70c | 77.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 44c | 76.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 54c | 73.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 57c | 65.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 54c | 52.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 65c | 49.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 70c | 47.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 59c | 47.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 30c | 45.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1b…c69cbacked Over | 44c | 39.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 46c | 34.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda4…b658backed Over | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 35c | 30.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa95…d397backed Over | 46c | 26.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 70c | 25.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 62c | 25.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 630 | 61.3%386 W · 244 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 60c | 24.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 57c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 54c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 54c | 21.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 71c | 20.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9132…6607backed Under | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.