South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23144e1e853d1686ee512eb1f924f6d05508d00e47dd75fd27c86ee5f8dbc347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under | 69c | 1,250$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.15 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 32c | 420.9$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.69 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 30c | 406.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.29 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 57c | 193.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 37c | 192.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 489 | 22.9%112 W · 377 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 30c | 186.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 16c | 174.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 33c | 166$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 101.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 55c | 90.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 72.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ed…b7adbacked Over | 45c | 60.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 26c | 59.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 54c | 44.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 452 | 53.1%240 W · 212 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 53c | 36.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 38c | 35.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 74c | 29.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 77c | 25.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Over | 45c | 23.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 48c | 20.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Mirassol FC (-1.5)São Paulo FC won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.