Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca91aa5d9ec85d7cee155fe4a1f85791817d3e62a5299cad896a0b5d668c09ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 9c | 1,130$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.21 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 771.47$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.28 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 9c | 621.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.48 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 18c | 513.69$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.87 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 14c | 423.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 36c | 406.09$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.31 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 14c | 342.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.06 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 329.81$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 56c | 287.89$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 35c | 251.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 228.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 219.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 55c | 197.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 175.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 168.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed No | 12c | 154.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 142.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…9160backed Yes | 15c | 122.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 120.78$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 54c | 116.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 114.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 37c | 89.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 15c | 87.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 59c | 86.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 19c | 84.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.97 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 33c | 83.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 15c | 79.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 72$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 71.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 48c | 70.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 16c | 65.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 64.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 17c | 63.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 29c | 59.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 59c | 57.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa442…d722backed Yes | 59c | 56.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…d354backed Yes | 60c | 55.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 79c | 52.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 47c | 49.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.29 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 57c | 44.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 67c | 44.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 75c | 33.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 70c | 32.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 32.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…d735backed Yes | 58c | 28.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 53c | 25.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 64c | 20.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 18.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 70c | 14.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.