Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f4028944407fd98e8b5d36ff2d4f01382228375e6b17985b2cc52c220c1fd20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 880.74$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 70c | 785.58$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.81 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 31c | 769.1$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.31 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 716.66$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 53c | 524.08$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.96 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 42c | 433.68$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.51 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 30c | 384.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.65 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 57c | 366.57$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 350.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.74 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 48c | 216.46$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 9c | 198.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.14 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 195.83$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 63c | 180.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 73c | 155.35$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 14c | 139.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes | 14c | 136.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 77c | 134.26$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 120.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 20c | 119.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.19 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 24c | 106.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 33c | 92.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 16c | 91.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 90.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 15c | 75.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 20c | 66.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 29c | 64.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 72c | 64.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 60.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 22c | 59.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…d1b9backed Yes | 52c | 57.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 55.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 46c | 54.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 27c | 51.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…d266backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 45.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 41c | 43.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed No | 25c | 43.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed Yes | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 48c | 34.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…e2dfbacked Yes | 58c | 34.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 75c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a9…5165backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 55c | 28.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 45c | 26.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 48c | 26.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 80c | 26.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked Yes | 55c | 26.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb1…bd66backed Yes | 77c | 24.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x275f…aa1abacked No | 51c | 23.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 59c | 23.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 50c | 21.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 75c | 15.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012e…7a33backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked Yes | 79c | 14.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.