NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaa9a77fab952dd5fbc38cc4656f220148b8bc283207181864dea4b13826d4b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ef…f3dfbacked Under | 55c | 19,532$10,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,789.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…7c96backed Over | 45c | 18,807$8,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,465.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf453…9c8dbacked Over | 45c | 18,721$8,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,429.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6c31backed Under | 55c | 17,997$9,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,098.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Under | 52c | 1,748$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839 | 278 | 40.6%113 W · 165 L | -22.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 47c | 1,060$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.2 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 937$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.65 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 46c | 552.43$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.6 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 444$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.24 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Under | 56c | 381.81$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 349.94$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 271.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Under | 53c | 254.24$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.49 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 55c | 228.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Over | 45c | 222.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 47c | 214.44$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e13…732fbacked Under | 57c | 176$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7f…f524backed Over | 47c | 170.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Under | 57c | 135.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.09 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Under | 58c | 103.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Over | 45c | 72.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 44c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4562…4f54backed Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe44…1720backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c5…378abacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 157 | 44.6%70 W · 87 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…4476backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f8…148fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5this page
- Lakers vs. PelicansLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.