NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f10b04dffd8d40c354b1f78088268017df5f1ebd75d36a137858c11fd8b474a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 52c | 4,547$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,175.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 43c | 1,645$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.74 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 1,032$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.01 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Under | 53c | 1,019$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.87 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4517…f700backed Over | 51c | 973.47$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.47 | 171 | 47.4%81 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 47c | 823.26$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.93 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 49c | 429$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.79 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 159.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Under | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Over | 47c | 66.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f6…a514backed Over | 48c | 62.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e2…4b92backed Over | 47c | 59.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8658…41c6backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Over | 51c | 38.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…f265backed Over | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 246 | 45.9%113 W · 133 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5this page
- Lakers vs. PelicansLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.