NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x630bdba4fdd24eacdeb808c71056ee5bc5b9097ff0efdd58951f22e9f860cf18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa117…a311backed Lakers | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 47c | 7,547$3,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,564.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…f932backed Lakers | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,820 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 4,530$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.62 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Pelicans | 48c | 3,714$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.23 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Pelicans | 48c | 3,313$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.22 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Pelicans | 48c | 2,731$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.88 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Lakers | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Pelicans | 48c | 1,968$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.43 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Pelicans | 48c | 1,965$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.07 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8265…e0eebacked Lakers | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,800$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Lakers | 50c | 1,774$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.65 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked Pelicans | 48c | 1,733$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.65 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Lakers | 52c | 1,538$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.46 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Pelicans | 48c | 1,202$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.93 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Lakers | 50c | 1,188$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Lakers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked Lakers | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pelicans | 48c | 960.92$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.24 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Lakers | 52c | 768.62$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.94 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Lakers | 52c | 654.33$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Lakers | 51c | 409.84$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Lakers | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…cb4ebacked Lakers | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Lakers | 52c | 226.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Lakers | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed Lakers | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Lakers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Lakers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Lakers | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Lakers | 52c | 149.62$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Lakers | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Lakers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58e…0893backed Lakers | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Lakers | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2921…78b3backed Lakers | 52c | 84.62$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.62 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Lakers | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Lakers | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…016dbacked Lakers | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Lakers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Lakers | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Lakers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Lakers | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Lakers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Pelicans | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Lakers | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…7701backed Lakers | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Pelicans | 48c | 23.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c28…bc2cbacked Lakers | 53c | 19.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-9.5)this page
- Lakers vs. PelicansLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Pelicans: O/U 229.5Under won
- Spread: Lakers (-10.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.